national debt >

 
Citation

 

"Quantifying the National Debt." By James D. Agresti. Just Facts, July 29, 2009. Updated 8/16/10. http://justfacts.com/nationaldebt.asp

 
Introductory Notes

 

This research is the first in a series of topics pertaining to the national debt. Future research will entail:

 

• Causes of the National Debt

• Accuracy of Government Accounting and Projections

• Voting Records and Promises of Politicians

• Economic Consequences of Government Debt

• Who Owns the National Debt?

• Media Coverage of the National Debt

• Indebtedness of State and Local Governments

• Personal Debt and Savings of Individual Americans

 

Click Here to support our work on these topics or to see our promotional video about the national debt.

 
Quantifying the National Debt

 

* As of August 12, 2010, the official debt of the United States government is $13.3 trillion ($13,317,048,837,517).[1] This amounts to:

 

• $43,377 for every person living in the U.S.[2]

• $113,645 for every household in the U.S.[3]

• $284,113 for every U.S. household that pays more in federal taxes than they receive in benefits from the federal government[4]

 

* Publicly traded companies are legally required to account for "explicit" and "implicit" future obligations such as employee pensions and retirement benefits.[5] [6] [7] The federal budget, which is the "federal government's primary financial planning and control tool," is not bound by this rule.[8] [9]

 

* As of September 30, 2009 (the end of the federal government's fiscal year), the federal government has:

 

• $6.5 trillion ($6,544,700,000,000) in liabilities such as federal employee retirement and veterans' benefits[10]

• $18.5 trillion ($18,538,000,000,000) in projected shortfalls in the Social Security program

• $33.5 trillion ($33,467,000,000,000) in projected shortfalls in the Medicare program

• $140 billion ($140,000,000,000) in projected shortfalls in other "social insurance" programs[11]

 

These projected shortfalls are referred to as "closed group present values" and are calculated in a manner that approximates how publicly traded companies are required to calculate their debts and obligations.[12] [13] [14] The figures represent how much money must be immediately placed in interest-bearing investments to cover the shortfalls between projected revenues and expenditures for all current taxpayers and beneficiaries in these programs.[15] [16] [17]

 

* Combining the figures above with the national debt and subtracting the value of federal assets, the federal government has $63.6 trillion ($63,604,500,000,000) in debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations as of September 30, 2009.[18]

 

* This shortfall exceeds the combined net worth of all U.S. households ($53.5 trillion), which includes all assets in savings, real estate, corporate stocks, private businesses, nonprofit organizations, and consumer durable goods such as automobiles, televisions, and furniture.[19] [20]

 

* This shortfall equates to:

 

• $207,176 for every person living in the U.S.[21]

• $542,789 for every household in the U.S.[22]

• $1,356,971 for every U.S. household that pays more in federal taxes than they receive in benefits from the federal government[23]

 

* These figures do not account for future deficits implied by any federal programs outside of the “social insurance” programs detailed above.[24]

 

* These figures depend upon several assumptions, including the following:

 

• government projections about future economic conditions are accurate. (The "2008 Financial Report of the United States Government" projected unemployment would average 5.6% during fiscal year 2009.[25]  During this period, unemployment averaged 8.5%.[26])

 

• the total shortfall ($63.6 trillion) is immediately placed in investments that consistently yield about 2.97% above the rate of inflation.[27]  If this money is not set aside immediately, the interest compounds.[28] [29]

 

Years

 $63.6 trillion compounded at 2.97%

(in 2009 dollars)

 Increase
10  $85.2 trillion  34%
20  $114.2 trillion  80%
30  $153.0 trillion  141%
40  $205.1 trillion  222%
50  $274.8 trillion  332%

 
Footnotes

 

[1] Web page: "The Debt to the Penny and Who Holds It." Bureau of the Public Debt, United States Department of the Treasury. Accessed August 16, 2010 at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

 

As of 8/12/2010, the "Total Public Debt Outstanding" is $13,317,048,837,517.

 

[2] Dataset: "Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009." U.S. Census Bureau, December 2009. http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html

 
  July 1, 2009
United States 307,006,550

 

CALCULATION: $13,317,048,837,517 debt / 307,006,550 people = $43,377 debt/person

 

[3] Dataset: "Average Number of People per Household, by Race and Hispanic Origin, Marital Status, Age, and Education of Householder: 2009." U.S. Census Bureau, January 2010. http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html

 

Total households = 117,181,000

 

CALCULATION: $13,317,048,837,517 debt / 117,181,000 households = $113,645 debt/household

 

[4] Calculations performed with data from the following sources:

 

a) Dataset: "Average Number of People per Household, by Race and Hispanic Origin, Marital Status, Age, and Education of Householder: 2009." U.S. Census Bureau, January 2009. http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html

 

Total households = 117,181,000

 

b) Article: “Accounting for What Families Pay in Taxes and What They Receive in Government Spending.” By Scott A. Hodge. Tax Foundation, September 21, 2009. http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/25195.html


[I]n 2010, before any of Obama's major policy initiatives-such as health care reform, cap and trade, and tax rate increases-are enacted, the bottom 60 percent of American families will as a group receive more in government spending than they pay in taxes. ...

By contrast, the top 40 percent of families pay more in taxes as a group than they receive in government spending benefits.


NOTE: For details, see Table 3: “Net Income Redistribution per Family (Constant 2010 Dollars)”

CALCULATIONS:

117,181,000 total households × 0.40 households paying more in federal taxes than they receive in federal government spending = 46,872,400 households paying more in federal taxes than they receive in federal government spending

$13,317,048,837,517 debt / 46,872,400 households = $284,113 debt per household paying more in federal taxes than they receive in federal government spending
 

[5] Report: "Enron: Selected Securities, Accounting, and Pension Laws Possibly Implicated in its Collapse." By Michael V. Seitzinger, Marie B. Morris, and Mark Jickling. Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, January 16, 2002. http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/7960.pdf

 

Page 2:

 

Among the disclosures of publicly traded companies are accounting statements. Since financial information is of little use to investors unless all firms use comparable accounting methods, the securities laws give the Securities and Exchange Commission broad authority to establish standards for financial reporting. The SEC has delegated the task of writing accounting standards to private sector bodies, and since 1973 the Financial Accounting Standards Board has been charged with formulating accounting and financial reporting standards.

 

[6] Summary of Statement No. 106: "Employers' Accounting for Postretirement Benefits Other Than Pensions." Financial Accounting Standards Board, December 1990. http://www.fasb.org/st/summary/stsum106.shtml

 

This Statement establishes accounting standards for employers' accounting for postretirement benefits other than pensions…. It will significantly change the prevalent current practice of accounting for postretirement benefits on a pay-as-you-go (cash) basis by requiring accrual, during the years that the employee renders the necessary service, of the expected cost of providing those benefits to an employee and the employee's beneficiaries and covered dependents. …

 

… The Board believes that measurement of the obligation and accrual of the cost based on best estimates are superior to implying, by a failure to accrue, that no obligation exists prior to the payment of benefits. The Board believes that failure to recognize an obligation prior to its payment impairs the usefulness and integrity of the employer's financial statements. …

 

The provisions of this Statement are similar, in many respects, to those in FASB Statements No. 87, Employers' Accounting for Pensions, and No. 88, Employers' Accounting for Settlements and Curtailments of Defined Benefit Pension Plans and for Termination Benefits. …

 

This Statement relies on a basic premise of generally accepted accounting principles that accrual accounting provides more relevant and useful information than does cash basis accounting. …

 

[L]ike accounting for other deferred compensation agreements, accounting for postretirement benefits should reflect the explicit or implicit contract between the employer and its employees.

 

[7] Book: Finance for Managers. By Richard Luecke and Samuel L. Hayes. Harvard Business School Press, 2002. Page 39:

 

In contrast to cash-basis accounting, accrual accounting records transactions as they are made, whether or not the cash has actually changed hands. Most companies of any size use accrual accounting. This system provides a better matching between revenues and their associated cost, which helps companies understand the true causes and effect of business activities. Accordingly, revenues are recognized during the period in which the sales activities occur, whereas expenses are recognized in the same period as their associated revenues.

 

[8] See the three notes above for details regarding the manner in which publicly traded companies are required to calculate their debt and obligations using accrual-based accounting. The following note explains that the federal budget, in contrast, is calculated on a cash basis. More details are spelled out here.

 

[9] "2008 Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2008. http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf

 

Page 21 (in pdf): "The President's Budget (Budget), the Government's primary financial planning and control tool, describes how the Government spent and plans to spend the money it collects.

 

Page 30 (in pdf): President's Budget … Prepared primarily on a 'cash basis'

 

[10] "2009 Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the Treasury, February 26, 2010. http://fms.treas.gov/fr/09frusg/09frusg.pdf

 

Page 49: "United States Government Balance Sheets as of September 30, 2009, and September 30, 2008"

 

Liabilities

 2009 (billions $)

Accounts payable  73.2
Federal employee and veteran benefits payable  5,287.3
Environmental and disposal liabilities  341.8
Benefits due and payable  160.8
Insurance program liabilities  166.2
Loan guarantee liabilities  69.4
Liquidity guarantee  91.9
Other liabilities  354.1
Total of above (excludes national debt)  6,545

 

[11] "2009 Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the Treasury, February 26, 2010. http://fms.treas.gov/fr/09frusg/09frusg.pdf

 

Page 14: “Table 3, Social Insurance Future Expenditures in Excess of Future Revenues”

 
  2009 (billions $)  2008 (billions $)
Totals 52,145  49,135
NOTE: The figures below, which are the components of the totals above, were included in the 2008 report but not in the 2009 report. The 2009 figures were provided to Just Facts by the Department of the Treasury on March 9, 2010.
Social Security (Closed Group) 18,538  17,188
Medicare (Closed Group) 33,467  31,810
Other (Closed Group) 140  137

 

[12] See here, here, and here for details regarding the manner in which publicly traded companies are required to calculate their debt and obligations using accrual-based accounting. The following two notes show that the federal budget, in contrast, is calculated on a cash basis. These notes also show that accrual-based accounting is used in the "Annual Financial Report of the United States Government," which is the source for the shortfall figures cited above.

 

[13] "2008 Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2008. http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf

 

Page 21 (in pdf):

 

Each year, the Administration issues two reports which detail the financial results for the Government. The President's Budget (Budget), the Government's primary financial planning and control tool, describes how the Government spent and plans to spend the money it collects. By comparison, the accrual-based Financial Report of the United States Government (Report) includes the cost of operations, the sources used to finance those costs, how much the Government owns and owes, and the outlook for its social insurance programs.

 

Page 30 (in pdf):

 
President's Budget Financial Report of the U.S. Government
Prepared primarily on a 'cash basis' Prepared on an 'accrual basis'

 

[14] Report: "Understanding the Primary Components of the Annual Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Government Accountability Office, September, 2005. http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05958sp.pdf

 

Page 5:

 

Accrual accounting, which is also used by private business enterprises, is the basis for U.S. generally accepted accounting principles for federal government entities. It is intended to provide a complete picture of the federal government's financial operations and financial position. The federal government primarily uses the cash basis of accounting for its budget, which is the federal government's primary financial planning and control tool.

 

Page 6:

 

The accrual basis of accounting recognizes revenue when it is earned and recognizes expenses in the period incurred, without regard to when cash is received or disbursed. The federal government, which receives most of its revenue from taxes, nevertheless recognizes tax revenue when it is collected, under an accepted modified cash basis of accounting.

 

[15] "2008 Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2008. http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf

 

Page 51 (in pdf):

 

The [social insurance] estimates are actuarial present values2 of the projections and are based on the economic and demographic assumptions representing the trustees' best estimates as set forth in the relevant Social Security and Medicare trustees' reports and in the relevant agency performance and accountability reports for the RRB and the Department of Labor (Black Lung). …

 

2 Present values recognize that a dollar paid or collected in the future is worth less than a dollar today, because a dollar today could be invested and earn interest. To calculate a present value, future amounts are thus reduced using an assumed interest rate, and those reduced amounts are summed.

 

Page 60 (in pdf):

 

Participants for the Social Security and Medicare programs are assumed to be the "closed group" of individuals who are at least age 15 at the start of the projection period, and are participating as either taxpayers, beneficiaries, or both, except for the 2007 Medicare programs for which current participants are assumed to be at least 18 instead of 15 years of age.

 

Page 105 (in pdf):

 

The present values of future expenditures in excess of future revenue are the current amounts of funds needed to cover projected shortfalls, excluding the starting trust fund balances, over the projection period. They are calculated by subtracting the actuarial present values of future scheduled contributions and dedicated tax income by and on behalf of current and future participants from the actuarial present value of the future scheduled benefit payments to them or on their behalf.

 

[16] Report: "Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds and the Federal Budget." By James Duggan and Christopher Soares. Office of Economic Policy, U.S. Department of Treasury, March 2008. http://www.treas.gov/offices/economic-policy/reports/...

 

Page 16: "The resulting present value is the amount that would have to be put in the bank today at the assumed interest rate to fund the future cash flows."

 

[17] "2009 Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the Treasury, February 26, 2010. http://fms.treas.gov/fr/09frusg/09frusg.pdf

 

NOTES:

a) In this report, starting trust fund balances of the various social programs are not included in the shortfall calculations.† Just Facts accounts for this in footnote 18 when all these figures are totaled to calculate "debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations" for the federal government as a whole.

 

† Page 125: "The present values of future expenditures in excess of future revenue [for the social insurance programs] are the current amounts of funds needed to cover projected shortfalls, excluding the starting trust fund balances, over the projection period."

 

b) In addition to the "closed group" projected shortfalls, this report also contains projections for the "open-group" and "infinite horizon." Details are below.

 

Page 14:

 

'Closed' Group and 'Open' Group differ by the population included in each calculation. From the [Statement of Social Insurance], the 'Closed' Group includes: (1) participants who have attained eligibility and (2) participants who have not attained eligibility. The 'Open' Group adds future participants to 'Closed' Group.

 

Page 125:

 

Current participants in the Social Security and Medicare programs form the "closed group" of taxpayers and/or beneficiaries who are at least age 15 at the start of the projection period. For the 2007 Medicare projections, current participants are at least 18 years of age at the beginning of the projection period. Since the projection period for the Social Security, Medicare, and Railroad Retirement social insurance programs consists of 75 years, the period covers virtually all of the current participants' working and retirement years, a period that could be more than 75 years in a relatively small number of instances.

 

Pages 157-158:

 

[W]hen calculating unfunded obligations, a 75-year horizon includes revenue from some future workers but only a fraction of their future benefits. In order to provide a more complete estimate of the long-run unfunded obligations of the programs, estimates can be extended to the infinite horizon. The open-group infinite horizon net obligation is the present value of all expected future program outlays less the present value of all expected future program tax and premium revenues. …

 

In comparison to the analogous 75-year [projection], extending the calculations beyond 2083, captures the full lifetime benefits and taxes and premiums of all current and future participants. The shorter horizon understates financial needs by capturing relatively more of the revenues from current and future workers and not capturing all of the benefits that are scheduled to be paid to them.

 

Pages 14, 158:

 
Program  75-Year Closed Group

(billions $)

 75-Year Open Group

(billions $)

 Infinite Horizon

 (billions $)

Social Security  18,538  7,677  17,500
Medicare  33,467  38,107  89,500
Other  140  94  ?
Total  52,145  45,878  107,000 + ?

 

[18] "2009 Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the Treasury, February 26, 2010. http://fms.treas.gov/fr/09frusg/09frusg.pdf

 
Federal Debt, Liabilities, Obligations, and Assets as of September 30, 2008
Category  (Billions $)
Publicly-Held Debt † ‡  7,583
Other Liabilities §  6,545
Social Security Projected Shortfall # 18,538
Medicare Projected Shortfall #  33,467
Other Social Insurance Programs

Combined Projected Shortfall #

 140
Assets £  -2,668
Total  63,604

 

NOTES:

 

† Page 49: Federal debt securities held by the public and accrued interest as of September 30, 2009 = $7,582.7 billion

 

‡ The "Publicly-Held Debt" differs from the "National Debt" in that it excludes "intergovernmental debt," which is money the federal government owes to various trust funds such as Social Security's. Hence, to be consistent, the social program shortfalls shown in the table above do not include their starting trust fund balances. Facts regarding why and how the federal government keeps its books in this manner will be covered at a later date in the section of this paper entitled "Real National Debt." In the meantime, to understand this issue, visit our Exclusive News Service article: The Impact of Social Security on the National Debt.

 

Page 125: "The present values of future expenditures in excess of future revenue [for the social insurance programs] are the current amounts of funds needed to cover projected shortfalls, excluding the starting trust fund balances, over the projection period."

 

§ See here.

 

# See here.

 

£ Page 49: "United States Government Balance Sheets as of September 30, 2009, and September 30, 2008"

 
Assets  2008 (billions $)
Cash and other monetary assets  393.2
Loans Receivable and Mortgage- Backed Securities, Net  538.9
TARP Direct Loans & Equity Investments, Net 239.7
Property, plant, and equipment, net  784.1
Other assets  712.0
Total  2,667.9

 

[19] Report: "Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States." Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March 11, 2009. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf

 

Page 2 (in pdf): "Household net worth—the difference between the value of assets and liabilities—was an estimated $54.2 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter, up $0.7 trillion from the third quarter."

 

Page 104 (114 in pdf):

 

B.100 Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations

Billions of dollars; not seasonally adjusted

 
   2009 Q3  2009 Q4
Net worth  53,493.5  54,176.2


NOTE: Household assets detailed in this table include items such as real estate, corporate equities, mutual funds, equity in noncorporate businesses, life insurance, pension fund reserves, and consumer durable goods. Nonprofit organizations are explicitly named in the title of this table because their assets are not considered household property, whereas assets of for-profit entities are considered household property.

 

[20] Web page: "Updated PPI Commodity Weight Allocations to Stage-of-Processing Indexes." Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last modified February 18, 2009. http://www.bls.gov/ppi/ppisopallo.htm

 

"SOP 3130 - Consumer Durable Goods: contains nonfood products, ready for final consumption, with a life expectancy of more than three years. Examples of durable goods include furniture, passenger cars, and appliances."

 

[21] Dataset: "Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009." U.S. Census Bureau, December 2009. http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html

 
  July 1, 2009
United States 307,006,550

 

CALCULATION: $63,604,500,000,000 / 307,006,550 people = $207,176/person

 

[22] Dataset: "Average Number of People per Household, by Race and Hispanic Origin, Marital Status, Age, and Education of Householder: 2009." U.S. Census Bureau, January 2010. http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html

 

Total households = 117,181,000

 

CALCULATION: $63,604,500,000,000 / 117,181,000 households = $542,789/household

 

[23] Calculations performed with data from the following sources:

 

a) Dataset: "Average Number of People per Household, by Race and Hispanic Origin, Marital Status, Age, and Education of Householder: 2009." U.S. Census Bureau, January 2010. http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html

 

Total households = 117,181,000

 

b) Article: “Accounting for What Families Pay in Taxes and What They Receive in Government Spending.” By Scott A. Hodge. Tax Foundation, September 21, 2009. http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/25195.html


[I]n 2010, before any of Obama's major policy initiatives-such as health care reform, cap and trade, and tax rate increases-are enacted, the bottom 60 percent of American families will as a group receive more in government spending than they pay in taxes. ...

By contrast, the top 40 percent of families pay more in taxes as a group than they receive in government spending benefits.

 

NOTE: For details, see Table 3: “Net Income Redistribution per Family (Constant 2010 Dollars)”

CALCULATIONS:

117,181,000 total households × 0.40 households paying more in federal taxes than they receive in federal government spending = 46,872,400 households paying more in federal taxes than they receive in federal government spending

$63,604,500,000,000 debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations / 46,872,400 households = $1,356,971 debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations per household paying more in federal taxes than they receive in federal government spending

 

[24] "2008 Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2008. http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf

 

Page 28 (in pdf):

 

The SOSI [Statement of Social Insurance] provides additional perspective on the Government's long term estimated exposures and costs. However, it should be noted that the Government's financial statements do not reflect future costs implied by any current policy, such as national defense, the global war on terrorism, and disaster relief and recovery.

 

[25] "2008 Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2008. http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf

 

Page 148: "Table 10 shows present values of 10-year projections of revenues and expenditures for the Unemployment Insurance Program…. For expected economic conditions, the estimates are based on an unemployment rate of 5.58 percent during fiscal year 2009, decreasing to 4.80 percent in fiscal year 2013 and thereafter."

 

[26] Table: "Unemployment Rate - Civilian Labor Force - LNS14000000." Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. Data extracted March 11, 2010. http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln

 

Unemployment Rate – Fiscal Year 2009

Oct  Nov  Dec  Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun Jul Aug Sep  Average
6.6%  6.9%  7.4%  7.7%  8.2%  8.6%  8.9%  9.4%  9.5% 9.4% 9.7% 9.8%  8.5%


[27] Calculations performed with data from Table VI.F6: "Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2007-85, Intermediate Cost Assumptions." United States Social Security Administration, May 12, 2009. http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2009/lr6f6.html

 

NOTES:

The economic assumptions contained in this table are those used in the Social Security Trustees' Report. The "Adjusted CPI" (inflation) and "Compound Interest Rate Factor" (yield of investments) were annualized and averaged over the 75 year projection period. The result is an average annual interest rate of 5.75% and an average annual inflation of 2.78%, the difference between these two figures amounting to 2.97%.

 

The other social insurance programs use approximately the same assumptions, as evidenced by pages 128-129 of the “2009 Financial Report of the United States Government,” which show that 7 out of 8 comparable demographic and economic assumptions for Social Security and Medicare are exactly the same in all years, and 1 of the 8 is exactly the same in all years except 2009 and 2010.

 

[28] "2008 Financial Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2008. http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf

 

Page 51 (in pdf): "Present values recognize that a dollar paid or collected in the future is worth less than a dollar today, because a dollar today could be invested and earn interest. To calculate a present value, future amounts are thus reduced using an assumed interest rate, and those reduced amounts are summed."

 

[29] An example of how this interest compounds can be seen in calculations performed by the U.S. Social Security Administration. The "75-year open group unfunded obligation" is listed at $4.3 trillion in the 2008 Trustees' Report.† Yet, if these same projected deficits are allowed to accumulate, the shortfall would amount to $36 trillion (in 2008 dollars) by 2082.‡

 

† "The 2008 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of The Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds." The Board of Trustees of the Federal OASDI Trust Funds, March 28, 2008. http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR08/tr08.pdf

 

Page 59: "The present value of future cost less future tax income over the long-range period, minus the amount of trust fund assets at the beginning of the projection period, amounts to $4.3 trillion for the [Social Security] program. This amount is referred to as the 75-year 'open group unfunded obligation'."

 

‡ Calculation performed with data from the following sources:

 

a) Report: "Combined OASDI Trust Fund Operations: 2008 Trustees Report Intermediate Assumptions." Office of the Chief Actuary, United States Social Security Administration, October 16, 2008.

 

The Social Security Trust Fund end of year assets are projected to be -$277,143,351,000,000 in 2082.

 

b) Web page: "Selected Economic Variables: Table VI.F6.-Selected Economic Variables Calendar Years 2007-85." United States Social Security Administration. Last reviewed or modified March 25, 2008. http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/TR08/lr6f6.html

 

[The adjusted CPI (consumer price index) from this table is 769.36 for 2082.]

 

CALCULATION: -277.1 trillion (2082 $) / (769.36/100) = -36.0 trillion (2008 $)

 

© 2010 Just Facts

 


 

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