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national debt
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"Quantifying the National Debt." By James D.
Agresti. Just Facts, July 29, 2009.
Updated 8/16/10.
http://justfacts.com/nationaldebt.asp
This research is the first in a series of
topics pertaining to the national debt.
Future research will entail:
• Causes of the National Debt
• Accuracy of Government Accounting and
Projections
• Voting Records and Promises of Politicians
• Economic Consequences of Government Debt
• Who Owns the National Debt?
• Media Coverage of the National Debt
• Indebtedness of State and Local
Governments
• Personal Debt and Savings of Individual
Americans
Click Here to support our work on these
topics or to see
our
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national debt.
| Quantifying the National Debt |
* As of
August 12, 2010, the official debt of
the United States government is $13.3
trillion ($13,317,048,837,517).[1] This
amounts to:
• $43,377 for every person living in the
U.S.[2]
• $113,645 for every household in the U.S.[3]
• $284,113 for every U.S.
household that pays more in federal taxes
than they receive in benefits from the
federal government[4]
* Publicly traded companies are legally
required to account for "explicit" and "implicit" future obligations such as
employee pensions and retirement
benefits.[5]
[6]
[7] The federal budget,
which is the "federal government's primary
financial planning and control tool," is not
bound by this rule.[8]
[9]
* As of September 30, 2009 (the end of the
federal government's fiscal year), the
federal government has:
• $6.5 trillion ($6,544,700,000,000) in
liabilities such as federal employee
retirement and veterans' benefits[10]
• $18.5 trillion ($18,538,000,000,000) in
projected shortfalls in the Social Security
program
• $33.5 trillion ($33,467,000,000,000) in
projected shortfalls in the Medicare program
• $140 billion ($140,000,000,000) in
projected shortfalls in other "social
insurance" programs[11]
These projected shortfalls are referred to
as "closed group present values" and are
calculated in a manner that approximates how
publicly traded companies are required to
calculate their debts and obligations.[12]
[13]
[14] The figures represent how much
money must be immediately placed in
interest-bearing investments to cover the
shortfalls between projected revenues and
expenditures for all current taxpayers and
beneficiaries in these programs.[15]
[16]
[17]
* Combining the figures above with the
national debt and subtracting the value of
federal assets, the federal government has
$63.6 trillion ($63,604,500,000,000) in
debt, liabilities, and unfunded obligations
as of September 30, 2009.[18]
* This shortfall exceeds the combined net
worth of all U.S. households ($53.5
trillion), which includes all assets
in savings, real estate, corporate stocks, private
businesses, nonprofit organizations, and
consumer durable goods such as automobiles,
televisions, and furniture.[19]
[20]
* This shortfall equates to:
• $207,176 for every person living in the
U.S.[21]
• $542,789 for every household in the
U.S.[22]
• $1,356,971 for every U.S.
household that pays more in federal taxes
than they receive in benefits from the
federal government[23]
* These figures do not account for future
deficits implied by any federal programs
outside of the “social insurance” programs
detailed above.[24]
* These figures depend upon several
assumptions, including the following:
• government projections about future
economic conditions are accurate. (The "2008
Financial Report of the United States
Government" projected unemployment would
average 5.6% during fiscal year 2009.[25]
During this period, unemployment
averaged 8.5%.[26])
• the total shortfall ($63.6 trillion) is
immediately placed in investments that
consistently yield about 2.97% above the rate
of inflation.[27] If this money is not set
aside immediately, the interest
compounds.[28]
[29]
| Years |
$63.6 trillion compounded
at 2.97%
(in 2009
dollars) |
Increase |
| 10 |
$85.2 trillion |
34% |
| 20 |
$114.2 trillion |
80% |
| 30 |
$153.0 trillion |
141% |
| 40 |
$205.1 trillion |
222% |
| 50 |
$274.8 trillion |
332% |
[1] Web page: "The Debt to
the Penny and Who Holds It." Bureau of the Public Debt, United
States Department of the Treasury. Accessed
August 16, 2010 at
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np
As of 8/12/2010, the
"Total Public Debt Outstanding" is
$13,317,048,837,517.
[2] Dataset: "Annual
Estimates of the Resident Population for the
United States, Regions, States, and Puerto
Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009." U.S. Census Bureau,
December 2009.
http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html
| |
July 1,
2009 |
| United States |
307,006,550 |
CALCULATION: $13,317,048,837,517 debt /
307,006,550 people = $43,377 debt/person
[3] Dataset: "Average
Number of People per Household, by Race and
Hispanic Origin, Marital Status, Age, and
Education of Householder: 2009." U.S. Census Bureau,
January 2010.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html
Total households = 117,181,000
CALCULATION: $13,317,048,837,517 debt /
117,181,000 households = $113,645 debt/household
[4] Calculations performed with data from
the following sources:
a)
Dataset: "Average
Number of People per Household, by Race and
Hispanic Origin, Marital Status, Age, and
Education of Householder: 2009." U.S. Census Bureau,
January 2009.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html
Total households = 117,181,000
b) Article: “Accounting for What Families
Pay in Taxes and What They Receive in
Government Spending.” By Scott A. Hodge. Tax
Foundation, September 21, 2009.
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/25195.html
[I]n 2010, before any of Obama's major
policy initiatives-such as health care
reform, cap and trade, and tax rate
increases-are enacted, the bottom 60 percent
of American families will as a group receive
more in government spending than they pay in
taxes. ...
By contrast, the top 40 percent of families
pay more in taxes as a group than they
receive in government spending benefits.
NOTE: For details, see Table 3: “Net Income
Redistribution per Family (Constant 2010
Dollars)”
CALCULATIONS:
117,181,000 total households × 0.40
households paying more in federal taxes than
they receive in federal government spending
= 46,872,400 households paying more in
federal taxes than they receive in federal
government spending
$13,317,048,837,517 debt / 46,872,400
households = $284,113 debt per household
paying more in federal taxes than they
receive in federal government spending
[5] Report:
"Enron: Selected Securities,
Accounting, and Pension Laws Possibly
Implicated in its Collapse." By Michael V. Seitzinger, Marie B. Morris, and Mark
Jickling. Congressional Research Service,
Library of Congress, January 16, 2002.
http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/7960.pdf
Page 2:
Among the disclosures of publicly traded
companies are accounting statements. Since
financial information is of little use to
investors unless all firms use comparable
accounting methods, the securities laws give
the Securities and Exchange Commission broad
authority to establish standards for
financial reporting. The SEC has delegated
the task of writing accounting standards to
private sector bodies, and since 1973 the
Financial Accounting Standards Board has
been charged with formulating accounting and
financial reporting standards.
[6] Summary of Statement No. 106:
"Employers' Accounting for Postretirement
Benefits Other Than Pensions." Financial
Accounting Standards Board, December 1990.
http://www.fasb.org/st/summary/stsum106.shtml
This Statement establishes accounting
standards for employers' accounting for
postretirement benefits other than
pensions…. It will significantly change the
prevalent current practice of accounting for
postretirement benefits on a pay-as-you-go
(cash) basis by requiring accrual, during
the years that the employee renders the
necessary service, of the expected cost of
providing those benefits to an employee and
the employee's beneficiaries and covered
dependents. …
… The Board believes that measurement of the
obligation and accrual of the cost based on
best estimates are superior to implying, by
a failure to accrue, that no obligation
exists prior to the payment of benefits. The
Board believes that failure to recognize an
obligation prior to its payment impairs the
usefulness and integrity of the employer's
financial statements. …
The provisions of this Statement are
similar, in many respects, to those in FASB
Statements No. 87, Employers' Accounting for
Pensions, and No. 88, Employers' Accounting
for Settlements and Curtailments of Defined
Benefit Pension Plans and for Termination
Benefits. …
This Statement relies on a basic premise of
generally accepted accounting principles
that accrual accounting provides more
relevant and useful information than does
cash basis accounting. …
[L]ike accounting for other deferred
compensation agreements, accounting for
postretirement benefits should reflect the
explicit or implicit contract between the
employer and its employees.
[7] Book:
Finance for Managers. By Richard Luecke and Samuel L. Hayes. Harvard Business
School Press, 2002. Page 39:
In contrast to cash-basis accounting,
accrual accounting records transactions as
they are made, whether or not the cash has
actually changed hands. Most companies of
any size use accrual accounting. This system
provides a better matching between revenues
and their associated cost, which helps
companies understand the true causes and
effect of business activities. Accordingly,
revenues are recognized during the period in
which the sales activities occur, whereas
expenses are recognized in the same period
as their associated revenues.
[8] See the three notes above for details
regarding the manner in which
publicly traded companies are required to
calculate their debt and obligations using
accrual-based accounting. The following note
explains that the federal budget, in
contrast, is calculated on a cash basis.
More details are spelled out
here.
[9] "2008 Financial Report
of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the
Treasury, 2008.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf
Page 21 (in pdf): "The President's Budget
(Budget), the Government's primary financial
planning and control tool, describes how the
Government spent and plans to spend the
money it collects.
Page 30 (in pdf): President's Budget …
Prepared primarily on a 'cash basis'
[10] "2009
Financial Report of the United States
Government." U.S. Department of the
Treasury, February 26, 2010.
http://fms.treas.gov/fr/09frusg/09frusg.pdf
Page 49: "United States Government Balance Sheets as
of September 30, 2009, and September 30,
2008"
|
Liabilities |
2009
(billions $) |
| Accounts
payable |
73.2 |
| Federal
employee and
veteran benefits
payable |
5,287.3 |
|
Environmental
and disposal
liabilities |
341.8 |
| Benefits due
and payable |
160.8 |
| Insurance
program
liabilities |
166.2 |
| Loan
guarantee
liabilities |
69.4 |
|
Liquidity
guarantee |
91.9 |
| Other
liabilities |
354.1 |
|
Total of
above (excludes
national debt) |
6,545 |
[11] "2009 Financial
Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the
Treasury, February 26, 2010.
http://fms.treas.gov/fr/09frusg/09frusg.pdf
Page 14: “Table 3, Social Insurance Future
Expenditures in Excess of Future Revenues”
| |
2009
(billions $) |
2008
(billions $) |
|
Totals |
52,145 |
49,135 |
|
NOTE: The
figures below,
which are the
components of
the totals
above,
were included in
the 2008 report
but not in the
2009 report. The
2009 figures
were provided to
Just Facts by
the Department
of the Treasury
on March 9,
2010. |
| Social
Security (Closed
Group) |
18,538 |
17,188 |
| Medicare
(Closed Group) |
33,467 |
31,810 |
| Other
(Closed Group) |
140 |
137 |
[12] See
here,
here, and
here for details regarding
the manner in which publicly traded
companies are required to calculate their
debt and obligations using accrual-based
accounting. The following two notes show
that the federal budget, in contrast, is
calculated on a cash basis. These notes also
show that accrual-based accounting is used
in the "Annual Financial Report of the
United States Government," which is the
source for the shortfall figures cited
above.
[13] "2008 Financial
Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the
Treasury, 2008.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf
Page 21 (in pdf):
Each year, the Administration issues two
reports which detail the financial results
for the Government. The President's Budget
(Budget), the Government's primary financial
planning and control tool, describes how the
Government spent and plans to spend the
money it collects. By comparison, the
accrual-based Financial Report of the United
States Government (Report) includes the cost
of operations, the sources used to finance
those costs, how much the Government owns
and owes, and the outlook for its social
insurance programs.
Page 30 (in pdf):
|
President's
Budget |
Financial
Report of the
U.S. Government |
| Prepared
primarily on
a 'cash
basis' |
Prepared
on an
'accrual
basis' |
[14]
Report:
"Understanding the Primary Components of the
Annual Financial Report of the United States
Government." U.S.
Government Accountability Office, September,
2005.
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d05958sp.pdf
Page 5:
Accrual accounting, which is also used by
private business enterprises, is the basis
for U.S. generally accepted accounting
principles for federal government entities.
It is intended to provide a complete picture
of the federal government's financial
operations and financial position. The
federal government primarily uses the cash
basis of accounting for its budget, which is
the federal government's primary financial
planning and control tool.
Page 6:
The accrual basis of accounting recognizes
revenue when it is earned and recognizes
expenses in the period incurred, without
regard to when cash is received or
disbursed. The federal government, which
receives most of its revenue from taxes,
nevertheless recognizes tax revenue when it
is collected, under an accepted modified
cash basis of accounting.
[15] "2008 Financial
Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the
Treasury, 2008.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf
Page 51 (in pdf):
The [social insurance] estimates are
actuarial present values2 of the projections
and are based on the economic and
demographic assumptions representing the
trustees' best estimates as set forth in the
relevant Social Security and Medicare
trustees' reports and in the relevant agency
performance and accountability reports for
the RRB and the Department of Labor (Black
Lung). …
2 Present values recognize that a dollar
paid or collected in the future is worth
less than a dollar today, because a dollar
today could be invested and earn interest.
To calculate a present value, future amounts
are thus reduced using an assumed interest
rate, and those reduced amounts are summed.
Page 60 (in pdf):
Participants for the Social Security and
Medicare programs are assumed to be the
"closed group" of individuals who are at
least age 15 at the start of the projection
period, and are participating as either
taxpayers, beneficiaries, or both, except
for the 2007 Medicare programs for which
current participants are assumed to be at
least 18 instead of 15 years of age.
Page 105 (in pdf):
The present values of future expenditures in
excess of future revenue are the current
amounts of funds needed to cover projected
shortfalls, excluding the starting trust
fund balances, over the projection period.
They are calculated by subtracting the
actuarial present values of future scheduled
contributions and dedicated tax income by
and on behalf of current and future
participants from the actuarial present
value of the future scheduled benefit
payments to them or on their behalf.
[16] Report: "Social Security and Medicare
Trust Funds and the Federal Budget." By
James Duggan and Christopher Soares. Office
of Economic Policy, U.S. Department of
Treasury, March 2008.
http://www.treas.gov/offices/economic-policy/reports/...
Page 16: "The resulting present value is the
amount that would have to be put in the bank
today at the assumed interest rate to fund
the future cash flows."
[17] "2009 Financial
Report of the United States Government."
U.S. Department of the Treasury, February
26, 2010.
http://fms.treas.gov/fr/09frusg/09frusg.pdf
NOTES:
a) In this report, starting trust fund
balances of the various social programs are
not included in the shortfall calculations.†
Just Facts accounts for this in
footnote 18 when all these figures are totaled
to calculate "debt, liabilities, and
unfunded obligations" for the federal
government as a whole.
† Page 125: "The present values of
future expenditures in excess of future
revenue [for the social insurance programs]
are the current amounts of funds needed to
cover projected shortfalls, excluding the
starting trust fund balances, over the
projection period."
b) In addition to the "closed group"
projected shortfalls, this report also
contains projections for the "open-group"
and "infinite horizon." Details are below.
Page 14:
'Closed' Group and 'Open' Group differ by
the population included in each calculation.
From the [Statement of Social Insurance],
the 'Closed' Group includes: (1)
participants who have attained eligibility
and (2) participants who have not attained
eligibility. The 'Open' Group adds future
participants to 'Closed' Group.
Page 125:
Current participants in the Social Security
and Medicare programs form the "closed
group" of taxpayers and/or beneficiaries who
are at least age 15 at the start of the
projection period. For the 2007 Medicare
projections, current participants are at
least 18 years of age at the beginning of
the projection period. Since the projection
period for the Social Security, Medicare,
and Railroad Retirement social insurance
programs consists of 75 years, the period
covers virtually all of the current
participants' working and retirement years,
a period that could be more than 75 years in
a relatively small number of instances.
Pages 157-158:
[W]hen calculating unfunded obligations, a
75-year horizon includes revenue from some
future workers but only a fraction of their
future benefits. In order to provide a more
complete estimate of the long-run unfunded
obligations of the programs, estimates can
be extended to the infinite horizon. The
open-group infinite horizon net obligation
is the present value of all expected future
program outlays less the present value of
all expected future program tax and premium
revenues. …
In comparison to the analogous 75-year
[projection], extending the calculations
beyond 2083, captures the full lifetime
benefits and taxes and premiums of all
current and future participants. The shorter
horizon understates financial needs by
capturing relatively more of the revenues
from current and future workers and not
capturing all of the benefits that are
scheduled to be paid to them.
Pages 14, 158:
|
Program |
75-Year
Closed
Group
(billions
$) |
75-Year
Open
Group
(billions
$) |
Infinite
Horizon
(billions
$) |
|
Social
Security |
18,538 |
7,677 |
17,500 |
|
Medicare |
33,467 |
38,107 |
89,500 |
|
Other |
140 |
94 |
? |
|
Total |
52,145 |
45,878 |
107,000
+ ? |
[18] "2009 Financial
Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the
Treasury, February 26, 2010.
http://fms.treas.gov/fr/09frusg/09frusg.pdf
|
Federal
Debt,
Liabilities,
Obligations, and Assets
as of
September
30, 2008 |
|
Category |
(Billions
$) |
| Publicly-Held Debt † ‡ |
7,583 |
| Other Liabilities § |
6,545 |
| Social Security Projected Shortfall # |
18,538 |
| Medicare Projected Shortfall # |
33,467 |
| Other Social Insurance Programs Combined Projected Shortfall # |
140 |
| Assets £ |
-2,668 |
| Total |
63,604 |
NOTES:
† Page 49: Federal debt securities
held by the public and accrued interest as
of September 30, 2009 = $7,582.7 billion
‡ The "Publicly-Held Debt" differs from the
"National Debt" in that it excludes "intergovernmental debt," which is money the
federal government owes to various trust
funds such as Social Security's. Hence, to
be consistent, the social program shortfalls
shown in the table above do not include
their starting trust fund balances. Facts
regarding why and how the federal government
keeps its books in this manner will be
covered at a later date in the section of this paper
entitled "Real National Debt." In the
meantime, to understand this issue, visit
our Exclusive News Service article:
The Impact of Social
Security on the National Debt.
Page 125: "The present values of
future expenditures in excess of future
revenue [for the social insurance programs]
are the current amounts of funds needed to
cover projected shortfalls, excluding the
starting trust fund balances, over the
projection period."
§ See here.
# See here.
£ Page 49: "United States Government Balance
Sheets as of September 30, 2009, and
September 30, 2008"
| Assets |
2008 (billions $) |
| Cash and other monetary assets |
393.2 |
| Loans Receivable and Mortgage- Backed Securities, Net |
538.9 |
| TARP Direct Loans & Equity Investments, Net |
239.7 |
| Property, plant, and equipment, net |
784.1 |
| Other assets |
712.0 |
| Total |
2,667.9 |
[19] Report: "Flow of
Funds Accounts of the United States." Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System, March 11, 2009.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1.pdf
Page 2 (in pdf): "Household net worth—the
difference between the value of assets and
liabilities—was an estimated $54.2 trillion
at the end of the fourth quarter, up $0.7
trillion from the third quarter."
Page 104 (114 in pdf):
B.100 Balance Sheet of Households and
Nonprofit Organizations
Billions of dollars; not seasonally adjusted
| |
2009 Q3 |
2009 Q4 |
| Net worth |
53,493.5 |
54,176.2 |
NOTE: Household assets detailed in this table include items such as real estate, corporate equities, mutual funds, equity in noncorporate businesses, life insurance, pension fund reserves, and consumer durable goods. Nonprofit organizations are explicitly named in the title of this table because their assets are not considered household property, whereas assets of for-profit entities are considered household property.
[20] Web page: "Updated
PPI Commodity Weight Allocations to
Stage-of-Processing Indexes."
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last modified
February 18, 2009.
http://www.bls.gov/ppi/ppisopallo.htm
"SOP 3130 - Consumer Durable Goods: contains
nonfood products, ready for final
consumption, with a life expectancy of more
than three years. Examples of durable goods
include furniture, passenger cars, and
appliances."
[21] Dataset: "Annual
Estimates of the Resident Population for the
United States, Regions, States, and Puerto
Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009." U.S. Census Bureau,
December 2009.
http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html
| |
July 1, 2009 |
| United States |
307,006,550 |
CALCULATION: $63,604,500,000,000 /
307,006,550 people = $207,176/person
[22] Dataset: "Average
Number of People per Household, by Race and
Hispanic Origin, Marital Status, Age, and
Education of Householder: 2009." U.S. Census Bureau,
January 2010.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html
Total households = 117,181,000
CALCULATION: $63,604,500,000,000 /
117,181,000 households = $542,789/household
[23] Calculations performed with data from
the following sources:
a)
Dataset: "Average
Number of People per Household, by Race and
Hispanic Origin, Marital Status, Age, and
Education of Householder: 2009." U.S. Census Bureau,
January 2010.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2009.html
Total households = 117,181,000
b) Article: “Accounting for What Families
Pay in Taxes and What They Receive in
Government Spending.” By Scott A. Hodge. Tax
Foundation, September 21, 2009.
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/25195.html
[I]n 2010, before any of Obama's major
policy initiatives-such as health care
reform, cap and trade, and tax rate
increases-are enacted, the bottom 60 percent
of American families will as a group receive
more in government spending than they pay in
taxes. ...
By contrast, the top 40 percent of families
pay more in taxes as a group than they
receive in government spending benefits.
NOTE: For details, see Table 3: “Net Income
Redistribution per Family (Constant 2010
Dollars)”
CALCULATIONS:
117,181,000 total households × 0.40
households paying more in federal taxes than
they receive in federal government spending
= 46,872,400 households paying more in
federal taxes than they receive in federal
government spending
$63,604,500,000,000 debt, liabilities, and
unfunded obligations / 46,872,400 households
= $1,356,971 debt, liabilities, and unfunded
obligations per household paying more in
federal taxes than they receive in federal
government spending
[24] "2008 Financial
Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the
Treasury, 2008.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf
Page 28 (in pdf):
The SOSI [Statement of Social Insurance]
provides additional perspective on the
Government's long term estimated exposures
and costs. However, it should be noted that
the Government's financial statements do not
reflect future costs implied by any current
policy, such as national defense, the global
war on terrorism, and disaster relief and
recovery.
[25] "2008 Financial
Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the
Treasury, 2008.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf
Page 148: "Table 10 shows present values of
10-year projections of revenues and
expenditures for the Unemployment Insurance
Program…. For expected economic conditions,
the estimates are based on an unemployment
rate of 5.58 percent during fiscal year
2009, decreasing to 4.80 percent in fiscal
year 2013 and thereafter."
[26] Table: "Unemployment
Rate - Civilian Labor Force - LNS14000000."
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S.
Department of Labor. Data
extracted March 11, 2010.
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln
|
Unemployment Rate – Fiscal Year 2009 |
| Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Average |
| 6.6% |
6.9% |
7.4% |
7.7% |
8.2% |
8.6% |
8.9% |
9.4% |
9.5% |
9.4% |
9.7% |
9.8% |
8.5% |
[27] Calculations performed with data from
Table VI.F6: "Selected Economic Variables,
Calendar Years 2007-85, Intermediate Cost
Assumptions." United States Social Security
Administration, May 12, 2009.
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/2009/lr6f6.html
NOTES:
The economic assumptions contained in this
table are those used in the Social Security
Trustees' Report. The "Adjusted CPI"
(inflation) and "Compound Interest Rate
Factor" (yield of investments) were
annualized and averaged over the 75 year
projection period. The result is an average
annual interest rate of 5.75% and an average
annual inflation of 2.78%, the difference
between these two figures amounting to
2.97%.
The other social insurance programs use
approximately the same assumptions, as
evidenced by pages 128-129 of the “2009
Financial Report of the United States
Government,” which show that 7 out of 8
comparable demographic and economic
assumptions for Social Security and Medicare
are exactly the same in all years, and 1 of
the 8 is exactly the same in all years
except 2009 and 2010.
[28] "2008 Financial
Report of the United States Government." U.S. Department of the
Treasury, 2008.
http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf
Page 51 (in pdf): "Present values
recognize that a dollar paid or collected in
the future is worth less than a dollar
today, because a dollar today could be
invested and earn interest. To calculate a
present value, future amounts are thus
reduced using an assumed interest rate, and
those reduced amounts are summed."
[29] An example of how this interest
compounds can be seen in calculations
performed by the U.S. Social Security
Administration. The "75-year open group
unfunded obligation" is listed at $4.3
trillion in the 2008 Trustees' Report.† Yet,
if these same projected deficits are allowed
to accumulate, the shortfall would amount to
$36 trillion (in 2008 dollars) by 2082.‡
† "The 2008 Annual Report of the Board of
Trustees of The Federal Old-Age and
Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance
Trust Funds." The Board of Trustees of the
Federal OASDI Trust Funds, March 28, 2008.
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/TR08/tr08.pdf
Page 59: "The present value of future cost
less future tax income over the long-range
period, minus the amount of trust fund
assets at the beginning of the projection
period, amounts to $4.3 trillion for the
[Social Security] program. This amount is
referred to as the 75-year 'open group
unfunded obligation'."
‡ Calculation performed with data from the
following sources:
a) Report: "Combined OASDI Trust Fund
Operations: 2008 Trustees Report
Intermediate Assumptions." Office of the
Chief Actuary, United States Social Security
Administration, October 16, 2008.
The Social Security Trust Fund end of year
assets are projected to be
-$277,143,351,000,000 in 2082.
b) Web page: "Selected Economic Variables:
Table VI.F6.-Selected Economic Variables
Calendar Years 2007-85." United States
Social Security Administration. Last
reviewed or modified March 25, 2008.
http://www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/TR/TR08/lr6f6.html
[The adjusted CPI (consumer price index)
from this table is 769.36 for 2082.]
CALCULATION: -277.1 trillion (2082 $) /
(769.36/100) = -36.0 trillion (2008 $)
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